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In 2 Years and 8 Months, Waymo Outgrew Uber
This Week in The Autonomy Economy
The Road to Autonomy
July 26, 2026
This Week in the Autonomy Economy, Waymo and Uber’s marriage is heading for divorce, David Moss, Spencer Sparks, and Owen Sparks are in the middle of their Supervised Autonomous Cannonball Run, and China’s Autonomous Belt and Road Initiative ambitions continue to grow.
As of publishing, David, Spencer, and Owen are driving through Utah with just over 12 hours left to beat the current record of 49:55:57 set by Zack. They are supervising David Moss’ Tesla Model 3 running FSD 14.3.6 as it autonomously drives cross-country. The steering wheel has not been touched once.
Once they complete their journey and catch up on sleep, we’re going to bring them on the podcast to break down the trip, analyze the data, and share their stories (and there are bound to be some good ones).
What this supervised drive does is validate the L2+(++) market, proving that what once seemed impossible is now achievable. Journeys such as this one show the market what L2+(++) systems can truly accomplish.
Furthermore, it reinforces Tesla’s commitment to FSD Supervised (1.48 million subscriptions globally, a 56% year-over-year increase as of Q2 2026), Wayve’s L2++ deal with Stellantis, and WeRide’s L2++ commitments.
Any way you slice it, no matter how fast unsupervised autonomy (SAE Level 4) grows, the L2+(++) supervised market is poised to grow just as fast, if not faster. Ultimately, the profits from L2++ could accelerate the growth of L4.
WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
In 2 Years and 8 Months, Waymo Outgrew Uber
Waymo on Uber in Austin | Source: The Road to Autonomy
It only took Waymo 2 years and 8 months to outgrow Uber.
The Financial Times is reporting that Waymo has notified Uber it intends to launch direct, independent operations in both Austin and Atlanta in January 2028, when their contract allows.
The most important detail in the FT report is not the divorce. It is the calendar. Waymo says it is entering those markets independently in January 2028, when their contract allows. Uber says it plans to offer Waymo vehicles in those markets until May 2028.
That is a four-month difference. What happens during those four months?
Does Waymo accelerate the divorce and pull all of its vehicles from the Uber network by January 2028? Or does it simply curtail the number of Waymo robotaxis available on Uber in those markets to hamstring them and force the issue?
We do not know yet. We will be watching how this unfolds, and we will be watching how Uber's executives act on X for clues. Past posts by Uber's CTO and CFO have given clues about the state of the relationship, and the common denominator in those clues is that there appears to be no love lost between Uber and Waymo.
We first noticed signals of a deteriorating relationship in May 2025. On the May 31, 2025 episode of Autonomy Markets we said, "Waymo does not need Uber." That was 419 days before the FT report, and the market narrative at that time was that the two companies were locked at the hip. We took the contrarian view.
Despite the pushback, we kept following the signals and made the call on November 1, 2025, 265 days before the FT report, when we said Uber and Waymo were heading to divorce court.
Then for good measure, in last week's July 19, 2026 edition of This Week in The Autonomy Economy, we wrote:
We will state it once again for the record: it is only a matter of time until both the Austin and Atlanta markets become Waymo-only. The days of playing autonomous roulette trying to get a Waymo in those markets is coming to an end. When it ends, how does the market react? That is the million-dollar question.
That was five days before the FT report, and now we know how the market reacted. Uber sold off 4% on the news.
Waymo is not publicly traded, so you can track it on The Road to Autonomy Robotaxi Index instead. After the news broke on July 24th, Waymo's index position was little changed. It had no material impact on the company’s ranking.
Next week Uber reports. We will be listening to the earnings call closely for more signals, and we expect more insight into Uber's robotaxi strategy and hopefully some color from Dara on Uber’s path forward without Waymo.
Our Take: We called it. Now the next call. Within a few years, Uber's European robotaxi partners will pull a Waymo and go out on their own, once they establish their brand in the market. The demand generation narrative is officially over. The Uber robotaxi pivot has to begin now.
WAYMO X UBER PARTNERSHIP TIMELINE
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THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY ROBOTAXI INDEX
The Road to Autonomy Robotaxi Index (Top 5) | 06:01 UTC · 2026-07-26
📈 Follow @AutonomyIndices on X for the latest updates on The Road to Autonomy Indices. Updates every 12 hours.
PIQUING OUR INTEREST
Tesla Semi Has an FSD Timeline When asked by Walter Piecyk on the Q2 2026 earnings call about FSD coming to Semi, Elon Musk replied; “We expect to get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi probably around the end of this year or early next year.”
Applied Intuition Launches Dana to Accelerate Physical AI Applied Intuition has launched Dana, an agentic AI platform designed to streamline and unify the entire lifecycle of building, testing, deploying, and operating physical AI systems across automotive, robotics, and industrial applications.
Waymo Robotaxis Had 68% Lower Crash Rate Than Humans A study by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) reveals that Waymo’s autonomous vehicles were involved in 68% fewer police-reportable crashes per mile than human drivers across major U.S. operating markets.
Hyundai is Strengthening its Partnership with Waymo While light on details, Hyundai issued a press release this week stating that the company “continues to strengthen its strategic partnership with Waymo in the autonomous driving sector to support the development of a safe and innovative autonomous driving ecosystem.”
Mobileye Founder to Step Down as CEO After leading Mobileye for 27 years, Amnon Shashua is stepping down as CEO as the company shifts strategy towards owning and operating a robotaxi fleet, instead of purely licensing their ADAS technology.
80% of Vehicles Will Have SAE Level 4 Capabilities by 2030 That is according to Jun Seki, Foxconn’s Chief Strategy Officer for EVs, citing the emergence of technologies that do not rely on “high-precision sensors and other hardware”.
China Resumes Issuing Robotaxi Licenses After Months-Long Freeze Chinese authorities have resumed granting licenses for autonomous ride-hailing services following an industry-wide safety review triggered by a major system outage involving Baidu's robotaxis in Wuhan earlier this year.
VW and Horizon Robotics Deepen Autonomous Driving Partnership in China VW has expanded its strategic partnership with Horizon Robotics as the company accelerates the development of autonomous driving systems for the Chinese market.
Momenta Enters Robovan Sector in China Momenta has expanded into the robovan market, currently operating autonomous cargo vehicles in Suzhou, China.
Pony AI and JD Auto Service to Build China Robotaxi Fleet Management Network Pony AI and JD Auto Service have partnered to develop a nationwide robotaxi fleet management service in China, intended to minimize vehicle downtime and establish a repeatable maintenance standard for autonomous vehicles.
SAIC Mobility Launches Purpose-Built Robotaxi Project SAIC Mobility has initiated a project to develop SAIC Motor’s first purpose-built, mass-produced Robotaxi designed specifically for commercial autonomous ride-hailing, targeting a 2027 rollout in Shanghai.
MINIEYE and StarCharge Partner to Build Automated Charging Hubs for Autonomous Fleets in China Chinese autonomous driving company MINIEYE has partnered with EV charging provider StarCharge to build automated charging hubs in China for autonomous vehicle fleets.
📰 Follow @RoadToAutonomy on X for our latest thoughts and insights on the autonomy economy.
SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS
Aurora Launches Second-Generation Autonomous Trucks
On July 22nd, Aurora announced its second-generation autonomous trucks with a few interesting caveats that we caught with our inspector hats on while reading their blog post. The post stated:
Is anyone in the truck? The driver's seat is empty. The Aurora Driver handles all of the driving. You may see a member of our roadside assistance team riding in the rear seat on some trips. They're onboard to gather feedback and provide support like roadside assistance should it be needed. We're actively building partnerships with providers who offer these services for traditional fleets, which we expect to go live later this year. To be clear: this person is not there to drive or to supervise the driving. The Aurora Driver does that on its own.
After reading Aurora’s Your Questions Answered blog post, we have the following questions:
Control & Intervention: Does the backseat team member hold a CDL, and do they have access to an emergency stop button or kill switch while the truck is moving? Furthermore, do they have the authority or ability to force the truck to pull over for any reason?
Operational Dependence: Does the backseat team member take over manual driving after an incident, or drive the truck during any phase of the trip (e.g., yards, docks, or shoulder recoveries)?
Supervision & Compliance: Does the onboard backseat team member have active safety or monitoring duties during transit? Are they required to file trip reports?
Underwriter & Partner Mandates: Is the presence of this backseat team member strictly optional for internal feedback, or is it mandated by insurance underwriters, OEM partners, or suppliers?
These are questions the market is asking and we are simply asking for clarity. While the news and achievement is a positive catalyst for both Aurora and the autonomous trucking industry, The Road to Autonomy Autonomous Trucking Confidence Index (ATCI) remains cautious despite spiking six points on the news.
Our take: Sometimes, all it takes is an inspector hat and a magnifying glass.
THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY PODCAST
The Future of Warfare is Autonomous
(July 22, 2026) Nathan Michael, Chief Technology Officer, Shield AI joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why the future of warfare is autonomous.
AUTONOMY SIGNALS PODCAST
Tesla Expands Robotaxi Across Florida as Amazon's Zoox Falls Behind
(July 25 2026) This week on Autonomy Signals presented by KPMG, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss Tesla expanding robotaxi to Tampa and Orlando, Zoox recalling its entire 105 vehicle fleet after driving into an active fire scene in Las Vegas, and China embedding autonomous truck manufacturing in Kazakhstan.
AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST
Tesla’s Robotaxi Ramp Comes Down to One Number
(July 26, 2026) This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla's Cybercab validation timeline, Tesla Semi FSD Supervised, Alphabet's quiet quarter on Waymo, and the Mobileye CEO stepping down after 27 years.
AUTNMY AI IN THE NEWS
Waymo explores split with Uber as robotaxi tensions deepen
July 24, 2026 | Financial Times quoted AUTNMY AI co-founder Grayson Brulte on Uber’s regulatory lobbying tactics, noting that the ride-hailing company is using regulatory capture and advocating for hybrid network mandates to buy time and preserve its market share against expanding autonomous vehicle competitors.
“Uber is trying to buy time through regulatory capture,” said Grayson Brulte, co-founder of Autnmy AI, a data intelligence firm. “They are simply advocating for measures that will preserve their market share.”
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