Waymo's Nashville Expansion with Lyft Isn't About Rider Demand, It's About Flexdrive 👨‍🔧🚘

This Week in the Autonomy Economy, Waymo and Lyft rekindled an old friendship, Jonathan Morrison was confirmed as 17th Administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Waymo was cleared for takeoff at SFO, though calling it a "tourism boost" might be a bit generous today.

In the official announcement from Mayor Lurie's office, the words "supporting our city's economic comeback, boosting our tourism industry" were boldly proclaimed.

How is making someone in this case a tourist who might not know where they are going having to take a train for two stops, a seven-minute journey to the Kiss and Fly area, a boost to tourism?

It’s not. It's a boost to confusion and frustration. Without Waymo being able to pick up and drop-off curbside, there is a muted economic tourism boost. To us, this feels like a classic case of bureaucratic obstacles undermining the very benefits they claim to deliver to the public.

Where the city goes from here is anyone's guess. They could follow Phoenix Sky Harbor's model, which transitioned from Sky Train stations to curbside over time. One can only hope, because right now San Francisco has managed to make autonomous vehicles less convenient than traditional taxis, hardly the future-forward image the city wants to project to the world.

👔The Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy.

Discover how our market intelligence and strategic advisory services can empower your next move by sending an email to [email protected].

One-Time Briefings • Quarterly Subscriptions • Bespoke Advisory Services

Companies Mentioned: $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.8% ), $LYFT ( ▼ 0.09% ) 

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Waymo's Nashville Expansion with Lyft Isn't About Rider Demand, It's About Flexdrive

Don't call it a comeback. Lyft is back in autonomy and with an old familiar friend, Waymo. This week, Waymo announced they are officially expanding to Nashville with Lyft, just as we correctly predicted on the January 25, 2025 episode of Autonomy Markets, though the Lyft partnership was an unexpected surprise.

Hello, it’s me again, old friend. Is that what Waymo said when they called up Lyft and said let’s be friends again? We say that as Waymo and Lyft first partnered together in 2019 for a pilot where Waymo made 10 Waymo Chrysler Pacifica minivans available on Lyft. Today, Waymo drives over 1 million fully autonomous miles a week.

The Flexdrive Factor

But this isn't just about rekindling an old friendship, it's about Flexdrive. Nashville riders will be able to hail Waymo vehicles through both the Waymo app and the Lyft app, becoming Waymo’s second platform hybrid market after Phoenix.

While that is a positive, the real game-changer is Flexdrive. Lyft's 2020 acquisition of Flexdrive for $20 million has transformed into a strategic asset for the company, enabling them to play a significant role in the emerging autonomy economy.

Just how strategic of an asset has Flexdrive become? If you ask us, Lyft would not be Waymo’s Nashville partner if it was not for Flexdrive. In Nashville, Flexdrive is going to manage the end-to-end fleet management, including vehicle maintenance, infrastructure, and depot operations for the fleet. The fleet will initially be the Jaguar I-PACEs and they will be owned by Waymo.

The Hidden Challenge: Energy Infrastructure

Here is what nobody's talking about when it comes to this deal: Nashville’s emerging energy constraints. Nashville's population grew 6.4% from 2020-2024, and if energy demand continues growing at 2.15% annually, the region becomes energy-constrained by 2030 unless Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) adds 13 gigawatts to the grid.

The math is stark. TVA currently owns about 32 GW of capacity, but under high-growth scenarios, Nashville will need between 43-45 GW by 2030, creating an 11-13 GW shortfall. Even the "high" growth scenario (1.4% CAGR) leaves an 11 GW gap that must be filled by TVA which owns 92% of the state’s utility-scale generation.

⚡ Nashville/TVA 2030 Energy Outlook

• Current capacity: ~35.5 GW (including imports)

• 2025 peaks: Summer hit 31.9 GW; Winter hit 35.3 GW

• 2030 high-growth scenario: 45.3 GW needed with reserves

• The gap: 6-13 GW shortfall under high growth

What This Means for Waymo

Without adequate energy, Waymo cannot scale service in Nashville even with Flexdrive’s fleet management support. So what do you do? You watch Flexdrive very closely to see if they begin hiring energy specialists.

If they do, that becomes a telling sign of competitive advantage as Lyft positions itself as the go-to fleet operations partner for the autonomy economy.

Just as we advocated last week for robotaxi companies to hire in-house economists, this week we're saying the same thing about energy specialists. Deploying robotaxi fleets is massively complex, and right now, Lyft has a head start.

Our take: Waymo’s partnership with Lyft is not about generating rider demand, or moving away from Uber, it’s about Flexdrive.

Companies Mentioned: $LYFT ( ▼ 0.09% ), $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.8% ), $UBER ( ▼ 0.02% ) 

Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.

Lyft is currently ranked #2 with a neutral outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.

ADVOCATING FOR THE AUTONOMY ECONOMY | SPONSORED

Automation and autonomy will strengthen the economy, create jobs, and reduce inflation. Council for Economic Resilience is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American public.

🥳 Due to overwhelming interest and to accommodate a larger group, we are moving CFER’s DC Policy Summit to Tuesday, November 18, 2025 at 6:00 PM at American Trucking Associations. Register to attend today.

Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group

PIQUING OUR INTEREST

Jonathan Morrison Confirmed as NHTSA Administrator On Thursday, Jonathan Morrison was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as the 17th Administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

Waymo is Cleared for Take Off at SFO, with a Catch Waymo has been granted a permit to begin testing and eventually operating commercial service at SFO with a catch. Passengers who want to order a Waymo will need to take a two-stop, seven-minute train ride to the “Kiss and Fly” area to meet their vehicle. Curbside access can’t come soon enough.

Denver Airport Opens Door to Waymo Operations In a statement to The Colorado Sun, a Denver airport spokesperson said, “When Waymo is ready to operate at DEN, we will be working with them to understand the operation.” The door is open, but if Waymo wants to get passengers to the airport in a timely manner, they will have to unlock highway access.

Tesla Secures Arizona Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permit Tesla is ramping up Robotaxi. This week, the company secured a permit from the Arizona Department of Transportation to begin testing Robotaxi in Arizona with a safety driver.

WeRide and Pony AI Expand to Singapore In the coming months, both WeRide and Pony.ai will begin testing autonomous vehicles in Singapore on a seven-mile route in the Punggol neighborhood, with commercial service expected to launch in 2026.

Avride Expands Autonomous Delivery Robots to the University of Arizona Avride, in partnership with Grubhub, has deployed 50 autonomous delivery robots on campus.

Toyota’s Woven City to Open Next Week Next week, Toyota will officially open Woven City, with 360 people expected to move in initially. Woven City is Toyota’s vision of the future.

Toyota’s e-Palette Goes on Sale If you’ve ever wanted to own a shuttle and make it drive itself, now’s your chance. Toyota has officially begun selling the e-Palette for ¥29,000,000 ($196,000).

Bot Auto Goes Driver-Out in Houston In July, Bot Auto successfully completed a 40-mile driverless validation run on both surface streets and highways in Houston. Watch the full video of the run here.

Uber Freight Partners with Tesla In an effort to accelerate the adoption of electric trucks, Uber Freight has partnered with Tesla to launch a Dedicated EV Fleet Accelerator Program. But is this program a Trojan Horse that will eventually accelerate adoption of FSD in the Semi?

📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.

SOCIAL BUZZ | LICENSING

Wayve Surfs the NVIDIA Wave

Wayve is one of the most important companies in autonomy today, and their newly announced letter of intent for a $500 million investment from NVIDIA further validates the company’s approach to autonomous driving.

Our take: London calling. Next stop, Wayve. In a few weeks we will be visiting with Wayve, riding around the streets of London autonomously.

Wayve is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the licensing category.

THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY PODCAST

99% of Autonomy’s Impact Is Still Ahead of Us

(September 16, 2025) Qasar Younis, CEO and Peter Ludwig, CTO, co-founders of Applied Intuition joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why Applied Intuition continues to be one of the most interesting companies in autonomy.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST

Lyft’s Back! Waymo Deal Shocks Market, Tesla & Uber Forge Unthinkable Alliance

(September 20, 2025) This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Lyft’s dramatic return to the big leagues of the autonomous vehicle industry through a surprise partnership with Waymo in Nashville, including fleet management, sending Lyft stock soaring 20% while Uber dropped 5%.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

Companies Mentioned: $LYFT ( ▼ 0.09% ), $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.8% ), $UBER ( ▼ 0.02% ) 

Autonomy Economy Market Intelligence

Now that you have read an issue of This Week in the Autonomy Economy, discover how The Road to Autonomy's institutional-grade market intelligence platform can help you cut through the media hype cycles and provide you with ongoing actionable intelligence based on technical reality and commercial viability.

Send an email to [email protected] to go beyond the headlines and access the strategic intelligence your institution needs to navigate the autonomy economy.

One-Time Briefings • Quarterly Subscriptions • Bespoke Advisory Services