Uber's Growing Waymo Risk 🤖

This Week in The Autonomy Economy, Plus announced they are going public via a merger with Churchill Capital Corp IX, the European Union proposed easing autonomous vehicle regulations in a bid to reduce auto tariffs, and Uber’s Waymo risk continues to grow.

For Uber to reduce their Waymo risk, they need to fragment the market and fragment it quickly. And soon they will have to turn their attention to autonomous vehicle fleets. With the growing risk posed by Waymo and soon Tesla, we believe that a fleet partnership announcement is imminent, most likely involving an OEM in conjunction with an autonomous driving technology provider such as Wayve or Nuro.

Despite Dara Khosrowshahi’s “the press and to some extent investors like to cause drama, what the hell” comment at Bloomberg Live this week, the Waymo risk is very real.

We are not causing drama here or on Autonomy Markets, we are simply pointing out the facts and the facts are obvious. Waymo is a growing risk to Uber’s core business of ride-sharing.

In Mary Meeker’s Trends & Artificial Intelligence Report (May 2025), Ms. Meeker highlighted Yipit data showing that Waymo has surpassed Lyft in gross bookings in San Francisco, while Uber’s total share of gross bookings has declined.

While we remain skeptical of Yipit’s data, the broader trend is clear, Waymo is gaining market share. Whether Waymo has surpassed Lyft in terms of gross bookings is irrelevant at this point in time as a trend has emerged. Don’t believe us, just take a look at Reddit, X, Instagram, and TikTok. All of these platforms offer anecdotal evidence that riders are increasingly choosing Waymo over both Uber and Lyft.

This leads to the big question that Uber has to be pondering. What happens when Waymo expands to airports and turns on highways? These two unlocks could potentially lead Waymo to overtake both Uber and Lyft’s Bay Area market share in terms of gross bookings. If and when this happens, how does Uber respond? What impact will this have on their limited partnership? 

If Waymo sees the data and concludes it no longer needs Uber to scale, what happens when that partnership ends? Is Uber preparing for that moment now?

The bottom line is, while Waymo may be a partner today, they are a clear risk to Uber’s long-term business. It’s time for Uber to put a hedge on and accelerate the deployment of their own autonomous vehicle fleet.

👔The Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy. To learn more, say [email protected].

Companies Mentioned: $UBER ( ▲ 1.1% ), $LYFT ( 0.0% ), $GOOGL ( ▲ 3.25% ) 

Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS

Plus is Going Public

Investor interest in autonomous trucking continues to grow. This week, Plus announced they are going public through a merger with Churchill Capital Corp IX at a $1.2 billion dollar valuation.

The news follows Kodiak’s recent announcement that they are going public and Aurora’s driver-out commercial launch last month. Soon, the market will feature three pure-play, publicly traded autonomous trucking companies, each with a slightly different business model.

On this week’s Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discussed the different business models and the broader state of the autonomous trucking industry. Their conclusion? The market is healthy. Kodiak and now Plus choosing to go public serves as validation of the market’s health.

As Plus prepares to become a public company, the need for autonomous trucks to shore up and accelerate the supply chain is becoming more and more evident by the day. It’s what we call the Amazon effect, consumers want goods delivered not in days, but in hours. Soon, even that won’t be fast enough.

How do companies meet this growing consumer demand? Automation and autonomy. There is simply no other way. Over time, the Amazon effect will only intensify, pushing expectations from hours to under an hour.

Two or three decades ago, ordering from a mail catalog meant waiting weeks or months in some cases after you mailed in a check or money order with your order. Today, you simply click order and your credit card is charged. Then you get annoyed when the screen says delivery is tomorrow. Tomorrow? Why not today? How is this possible?

Consumer expectations have permanently shifted, and they’re not going back, they are only going one way, less and less patience. In 1984, Domino’s launched their “30 Minutes or It’s Free” campaign in an effort to compete with Pizza Hut, which did not offer delivery. The strategy worked, growing market share and forever changing pizza delivery (despite some legal controversy).

It’s 2025. A modern version of that promise is inevitable, minus the “free” part (thank you, lawyers). To make this possible, companies will need autonomous trucks. That’s exactly what Plus, Kodiak, Aurora, and the broader autonomous trucking industry aim to deliver for their partners and customers.

Our take: Keep on trucking, autonomously.

Plus is currently ranked #4 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucks category.

ADVOCATING FOR THE AUTONOMY ECONOMY | SPONSORED

Automation and autonomy will strengthen the economy, create jobs, and reduce inflation. Council for Economic Resilience is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American public.

Get Engaged, Learn More visit CNFER.org

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PIQUING OUR INTEREST

The European Union Is Open to Easing AV Regulations In an effort to get a reprieve from tariffs on EU-imported cars and auto parts to the United States, Brussels has proposed adopting a U.S.-style approach to autonomous vehicle regulation. 

Parallel Systems is Testing Autonomous Train Cars in Georgia Parallel Systems has started testing their bespoke autonomous train cars on the Genesee & Wyoming short line in Georgia.

Kubota and Agtonomy Expand Autonomous Tractor Partnership Kubota and Agtonomy have expanded their autonomous tractor partnership as they move towards full commercialization of their autonomous solutions for specialty crop farming in North America.

📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.

SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Uber Continues to Double Down on Autonomous Vehicles

If there was any doubt about Uber's commitment to autonomous vehicles, Dara Khosrowshahi put it to rest this week during an appearance at a Bloomberg Tech event, where he emphasized Uber’s autonomous vehicle ecosystem strategy.

Our take: For Uber to be successful in a market dominated by autonomous vehicles, fragmentation is essential. By investing in the AV ecosystem and forging partnership deals to bring autonomous vehicles onto its platform, Uber is actively contributing to that fragmentation which is good for their long-term business.

Companies Mentioned: $UBER ( ▲ 1.1% ) 

Uber is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.

SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Lyft Highlights Importance of Fleet Management

While Dara Khosrowshahi is out there publicly emphasizing Uber’s autonomous vehicle ecosystem strategy, Lyft is spotlighting their fleet management subsidiary, Flexdrive. Today, Flexdrive is a strategic asset for Lyft, tomorrow, could it become a key asset for the entire AV ecosystem?

Our take: As the autonomous vehicle market expands and Uber continues to secure AV partnerships, could Lyft respond by opening its Flexdrive service to non-Lyft AV partners? Or Could they even partner with Waymo as a fleet management provider?

Companies Mentioned: $LYFT ( 0.0% ), $UBER ( ▲ 1.1% ) 

Lyft is currently ranked #2 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.

THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY PODCAST

Autonomy is Good for the Economy

(June 3, 2025) Jim Mullen, Executive Director, Council for Economic Resilience (CFER) joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the far-reaching economic benefits of automation and autonomy and how these technologies benefit every single member of society.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST

Trump and Elon Drama, Tesla Robotaxi Crash Fallout, More Autonomy IPOs

(June 7, 2025) This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk examine the rising political tension between Elon Musk and President Trump, it’s potential impact on Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi launch, and what Plus' $1.2 billion SPAC deal signals for the future of autonomous trucking.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

Companies Mentioned: $TSLA ( ▲ 3.67% ), $GOOGL ( ▲ 3.25% ), $UBER ( ▲ 1.1% )