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This Week in The Autonomy Economy is presented by Koop, a specialist insurance provider focused on robotics and autonomous vehicles.
This Week in the Autonomy Economy, the Waymo/Uber relationship appears to have further deteriorated following The Thriller in the Big D, Wayve is preparing to scale in London and California finally took a step in the right direction.
After years of blocking the testing and deployment of autonomous trucks, the California DMV released revised regulations this week that would allow heavy-duty vehicles (weighing over 10,001 pounds) to test and eventually deploy fully autonomously in the Golden State.
This is a market-defining shift, one that finally opens California’s $185 billion freight market to autonomy. While the market is opening, California is still being California. The new regulations require an excessive amount of data reporting, which we believe will be weaponized down the road, likely in the form of a retroactive tax when the state faces its inevitable next budget shortfall.
Progress is coming to California, and to no one’s surprise, organized labor is not happy about it. Nor, it seems, is the Congressman representing Silicon Valley. Ro Khanna has publicly come out against autonomous trucking, a move that appears calculated to appease organized labor rather than support the innovation economy of his own district.
But no matter how much anyone tries to appease a vocal special interest group, the wisdom of the crowd will always win. You cannot stand in the way of progress. The California DMV finally appears to understand that, even if they cannot quite shake their heavy-handed regulatory mindset.
Soon, autonomous trucks will drive across the I-10 coast-to-coast, fully autonomously. It is only a matter of time. And when that time comes, it will be a great day in America.
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WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
The Thriller in the Big D
True to the adage that everything is bigger in Texas, the battles for market share in the autonomy economy are escalating. In Dallas, the hats are big, the hair is big, and as of this week, the conflict between erstwhile partners Waymo and Uber has reached a breaking point.
We are coining this moment the "Thriller in the Big D."
Put on your Inspector Clouseau hat. Over 72 hours last week, Waymo executed three consecutive announcements that systematically suppressed Uber's planned Dallas launch:
December 2: Waymo announces fully autonomous (driver-out) operations in Dallas, the day before Uber's scheduled Avride robotaxi launch announcement.
December 3: Uber launches Avride robotaxis in a 9-square-mile service area with safety drivers still present. Their announcement video employed strategic camera angles to imply a driverless experience, yet inadvertently left legs visible in the lower frame. On the same day, Waymo announces expansion to four additional cities: Baltimore, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia.
December 4: Waymo announces fully autonomous operations (driver-out) in Houston.
Inspector Clouseau would tell you from his years investigating cases around the world, partners do not front-run each other's launches. And they certainly don't announce four new markets on their partner's launch day.
The asymmetry is stark. Waymo is aiming to complete one million fully autonomous weekly trips by 2026 across multiple cities with the largest service areas of any robotaxi operator outside China. In contrast, Uber, through Avride, now operates non-Waymo robotaxis in just one U.S. city across nine square miles, with safety drivers still behind the wheel.
While there has been no official dissolution announcement, and Waymo vehicles remain available on the Uber app in Austin and Atlanta, the deterioration of the partnership is evident. It is now only a matter of time before Waymo vehicles are removed from the Uber marketplace. Moove, which already manages Waymo fleets in multiple markets, appears positioned to absorb those operations.
The Thriller in the Big D offers a glimpse into the coming war for roboitaxi market share. London and San Francisco are on the docket for 2026, followed by Los Angeles in 2027 and who knows what other cities in between.
The era of cooperation is ending. The convergence of partners into competitors is now inevitable.
Our Take: A lot is going to change in 2026.
Companies Mentioned: $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.01% ), $UBER ( ▼ 0.39% )
Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.
Uber is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.
ADVOCATING FOR THE AUTONOMY ECONOMY | SPONSORED
Automation and autonomy will strengthen the economy, create jobs, and reduce inflation. Council for Economic Resilience is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American public.
Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group
PIQUING OUR INTEREST
Waymo Expands to Baltimore, St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia Waymo continues their massive expansion, announcing four more cities this week.
Waymo Goes Drive-Out in Houston Another market, another step towards commercial operations, as Waymo has removed the safety driver in Houston.
Waymo Vehicles Have Arrived in London As Waymo prepares to launch commercial service in London next year, vehicles have started to appear in the capital.
Wayve is Preparing to Scale in London Wayve CEO Alex Kendall hosted FT Innovation Editor John Thornhill for an autonomous drive through Central London (a drive we have been on), and having a discussion about the future of autonomous vehicles in the capital.
Wayve Acquires Quality Match As Wayve accelerates toward commercialization, the company has acquired Quality Match, a German startup that specializes in data quality assurance for computer vision.
Wayve Introduces GAIA-3 Model Wayve has released GAIA-3, a generative AI model that creates realistic, controllable video simulations to safely stress-test autonomous vehicles against dangerous scenarios that are difficult to replicate in the real world.
NVIDIA Open Sources Autonomous Driving Stack NVIDIA has released Alpamayo-R1 for autonomous vehicles, in an effort to accelerate the development of autonomous vehicles (and sell more chips!)
Serve Robotics Expands in South Florida Serve Robotics has expanded autonomous delivery robot operations to Fort Lauderdale for customers in Downtown and the Las Olas Boulevard neighborhoods.
California Opens Door to Autonomous Trucking The California DMV has opened a 15-day public comment period regarding revised regulations that would authorize the testing and commercial deployment of fully autonomous heavy-duty trucks. This is a critical regulatory milestone that positions the Golden State to finally integrate autonomous freight into its logistics ecosystem.
Economics will Define the Future of Autonomous Trucking Bot Auto CEO Xiaodi Hou appeared on Bloomberg to discuss the company’s scaling strategy. As they expand autonomous trucking operations, Hou emphasized a roadmap defined by fiscal discipline and a clear path to profitability.
DHL Supply Chain Deploys Autonomous Vehicles in Singapore The opportunity to integrate autonomy into the supply chain is immense. Capitalizing on this shift, DHL Supply Chain launched a bespoke autonomous vehicle this week in Singapore for plant operations. Next, on-road deployments.
📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.
SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
The Art of Autonomy: Serve Robotics Borrows the BMW Playbook
Leveraging a strategy from the BMW playbook, Serve Robotics is differentiating its fleet by deploying art-adorned autonomous robots across key U.S. markets. This is a critical mechanism for building consumer trust; by integrating art into the delivery ecosystem, they are enhancing the community experience and proving that successful autonomy is ultimately driven by human connection.
Our take: Trust is the currency of the autonomy economy. By democratizing access to art through autonomous delivery, Serve isn’t just delivering goods; they are securing the social license to operate in communities around the U.S.
Companies Mentioned: $SERV ( ▼ 5.6% )
AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST
The Million Robot Bet: Why Enterprise Wins Before Homes
(December 2, 2025) Hugh Nguyen, Partner, Automotive Technology & Mobility, KPMG and Lerrel Pinto, Co-Founder, Assured Robot Intelligence (ARI) joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss why the immediate future of humanoid robotics lies in enterprise applications, rather than consumer homes.
AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST
Waymo Upstages Uber’s Party: Avride’s Debut & The Reality of Scaling
(December 6, 2025) This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss “Thriller in the Big D” as Waymo upstages Uber’s party in Dallas. The day before Uber was set to announce its commercial launch with Avride in Dallas, Waymo stole the spotlight by announcing they went driver-out in the same city.
Companies Mentioned: $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.01% ), $UBER ( ▼ 0.39% ), $NBIS ( ▼ 6.99% )
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The Road to Autonomy LLC provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services for informational and educational purposes only. All information, opinions, and forecasts are current as of the date of this newsletter's publication and are subject to change. We are not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner, and do not provide financial, economic, legal, accounting, or tax advice or recommendations. Nothing in our content, including the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD, constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, and should not be relied upon to evaluate any potential transaction. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. All content is provided 'as is' without warranties of any kind, either express or implied. This newsletter may contain links to third-party websites; such links are provided for convenience only and we do not endorse or assume responsibility for their content. Unauthorized reproduction, recording, or distribution of this content without prior written consent from The Road to Autonomy LLC is strictly prohibited.