Will the Real Uber Please Stand Up

This Week in the Autonomy Economy, Uber's identity crisis continues to unfold in real-time, Hyundai signals massive ambitions for robotics and robotaxis, and we put on our Inspector hats to uncover what Waymo is really up to in Europe.

This week we are pleased to present two pieces of original analysis. One on Uber's identity crisis and one on Waymo's EU ambitions. Happy reading.

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | PLATFORMS

Will the Real Uber Please Stand Up

Uber is currently locked in a high-stakes identity crisis as it attempts to navigate the transition from a human-centric platform to one that is fully autonomous. Ever since the company sold off assets including ATG (their robotaxi program), Elevate and Jump in 2020, Uber has loudly championed an asset-light strategy to the delight of Wall Street.

Over the last six years, Uber has repeatedly told investors that the company would avoid the overhead of owning and maintaining vehicle fleets, but its recent actions suggest a significant pivot is well underway.

A February 18th report in Bloomberg revealed that Uber plans to spend more than $100 million to build fast-charging, autonomous-vehicle hubs in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and Dallas, a direct move into the asset business.

This investment covers site development, equipment, and grid connections, effectively placing Uber in the energy and real estate business to ensure its future robotaxi partners have the necessary infrastructure to scale and maximize uptime.

Infrastructure is not asset-light, nor is this the first time since 2020 that Uber has signaled a shift back toward assets. In a July 16, 2025 Lucid Motors SEC filing, it was revealed that Uber and/or designated fleet operators will purchase not less than 20,000 Gravity Plus vehicles. A minimum of 10,000 following the start of production, and an additional 10,000 within the six-year period following production start.

These vehicles are the Nuro-Lucid-Uber robotaxis, built on the Lucid Gravity platform. Nuro developed the autonomous vehicle system, Lucid built the robotaxi, and Uber provides the ride demand. Together, they form the foundation of what Uber is betting on as its proprietary robotaxi solution, and as of today, these vehicles will reside on Uber's balance sheet as assets.

As part of this deal, Uber invested $300 million in Lucid and made a multi-hundred-million dollar investment in Nuro. Which raises the obvious question; if Uber wanted to remain an asset-light company, why invest in the development of robotaxis with plans to own the asset on their balance sheet?

Uber's shifting strategy is further complicated by its deteriorating relationship with Waymo, which is playing out subtly in the media. Although the two companies currently collaborate in Austin, Atlanta and Phoenix, the deteriorating relationship is becoming more and more obvious through public statements, posts on social media and podcasts.

Just this week, Uber declined to comment to Bloomberg on whether Waymo vehicles would even be allowed to use their new charging stations, stating that the sites are designed for cars that are on the Uber network. That statement alone makes it very clear that the Uber/Waymo relationship is deteriorating and points to Uber's attempt to build a walled garden of infrastructure to protect its own ecosystem against competitors who are actively eating into their market share.

This raises a pointed question about the future of fleet management within the Uber ecosystem. Avomo, a company in which Uber is an investor, is an autonomous vehicle fleet operations and maintenance company currently active in Austin and Atlanta, the same markets where Waymo is currently only available on Uber.

Avomo is part of the Moove Cars group, a separate entity from Nigeria-based Moove, which has an ever-growing global fleet management partnership with Waymo.

If Uber builds out its own fleet management infrastructure and the Austin and Atlanta markets convert to Waymo-only markets, what is the path forward for Avomo? If Waymo were to assign those markets to its partner Moove, the Moove Cars group may find itself with little choice but to shut down Avomo and refocus on its traditional European fleet management business.

If this were to happen, Uber would not be reliant on partners to grow its robotaxi business and in the process, eliminating a significant source of risk, as partnerships are inherently fragile. Furthermore, this would be a significant tell about where the Uber/Waymo relationship is actually heading, and what Uber's endgame really looks like for robotaxis.

On the bright side, Uber's pivot into energy and possibly fleet management could become a competitive advantage, but it also forces the company to confront the very capital-intensive third leg of the stool that it once tried to avoid, fleet management.

As the company is guaranteeing usage to third-party charging partners through take-or-pay style contracts, it is becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish the new Uber from the traditional asset-heavy logistics firms it sought to disrupt.

Ultimately, the real Uber remains hard to pin down as it balances its asset-light rhetoric with big investments into strategic assets that are required to operate a robotaxi network at scale.

By investing so heavily in physical charging hubs and fleet ownership, Uber is signaling that it no longer believes a software-only approach is sufficient to win in the robotaxi market. Whether this pivot allows them to catch up to Waymo or simply burdens their balance sheet with depreciating assets is the question currently being debated on Wall Street.

Our Take: The market is still pricing Uber as an asset-light platform. The evidence suggests it is becoming something else entirely. The real Uber needs to stand up and tell the market who the real Uber is, please stand up, please stand up.

Companies Mentioned: $UBER ( ▲ 1.26% )  

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Waymo is Quietly Laying the Groundwork for a European Expansion

On January 13, 2026, Waymo leadership held a meeting with Mark Nicklas, the European Commission's Head of Unit for the Internal Market (DG GROW). While Waymo has maintained a presence in the EU Transparency Register since 2020, this meeting specifically focused on the EU Individual Vehicle Approval (IVA) scheme, signaling a definitive transition from planning to active commercial deployment in European cities such as Berlin, Munich, and Paris.

We didn't stumble onto this meeting by accident, we built a tool to monitor for it. As the political environment in the UK remains topsy-turvy and Waymo's pending London launch remains in track for later this year, we shifted our attention to EU as a possible expansion market.

The first clue came from a job posting. Waymo is currently searching for a London-based Regulatory Counsel, with key requirements including advising on legislative and rulemaking processes across both the UK and EU, as well as building regulatory compliance programs for a rapidly scaling international fleet. With that clue in hand, The Inspector got to work.

To operate in Europe, Waymo cannot simply deploy standard vehicles. The moment LiDAR and compute stacks are integrated into a Jaguar I-PACE or the newly branded Waymo Ojai aka the Zeekr, the vehicle's original factory certification is voided.

Because Waymo does not produce millions of identical units, the traditional Whole Vehicle Type Approval is financially and logistically unfeasible. Instead, the IVA scheme allows Waymo to certify modified vehicles on a car-by-car basis, currently the only legal pathway to deploy their hardware in continental Europe.

Waymo's established partnership with TÜV SÜD is the bedrock of this strategy. As a specialized technical service, TÜV SÜD is authorized to conduct the heavy-duty safety audits required for IVA.

The meeting with Mr. Nicklas likely focused on establishing a Master Technical Report, allowing the 6th-Generation Waymo Driver to be certified once as a system and then applied as a template to the entire fleet, preventing the certification process from becoming a logistical bottleneck.

This is where the operational muscle of Moove becomes indispensable. While Waymo handles high-level policy, Moove acts as the industrial-scale IVA Processor. Registering thousands of vehicles is a significant hurdle involving physical inspections of lighting, braking, and electromagnetic compatibility.

Moove could handle the on-the-ground logistics, physically managing the fleet at test centers and navigating the mountain of paperwork required for each individual VIN to ensure the fleet is plated and road-legal.

Under Regulation (EU) 2018/858 and the automated-vehicle-specific EU 2022/1426, the EU allows for alternative requirements when a vehicle's design makes standard rules impossible to follow.

This is Waymo's technical secret sauce, allowing them to bypass manual control requirements provided the Automated Driving System (ADS) meets equivalent safety standards.

For the foreseeable future, however, Waymo will retain steering wheels in its European fleet, including the Ojai to satisfy current regulatory pragmatism during the initial 2026 rollout phase.

With Waymo’s recent $16 billion investment round and a valuation of $126 billion, these technical and regulatory streams are converging into what we are calling the Waymo’s Great European Expansion.

By securing certifications from TÜV SÜD, Waymo can leverage mutual recognition agreements to expand rapidly across member states. Once the initial batch of vehicles is approved, the resulting data could be used to lobby for full-scale, unlimited series production, paving the way for Waymo to scale service across the entire European Union.

We will be watching for more clues as Waymo’s Great European Expansion gets underway. As we uncover the clues and connect the dots, we will share our insights in this newsletter and on Autonomy Markets.

Our Take: The pieces are in place. 2026 is the year Waymo becomes a global business.

Companies Mentioned: $GOOGL ( ▲ 4.01% )  

Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.

PIQUING OUR INTEREST

The Resurgence of Hyundai Since the beginning of the year, shares of Hyundai have surged 70% as the company plans to deploy humanoid robots in its factories by 2028 and re-launch its Motional robotaxi service in Las Vegas by the end of the year; this time with no safety drivers.

Waymo: 3,000 Vehicles, 70 Remote Assistance Agents To say Waymo's recent Hit the Road, Mac: The Future of Self-Driving Cars Senate Commerce Committee hearing did not go well would be a massive understatement. It went viral for all the wrong reasons, notably when Waymo admitted to using Remote Assistance Agents based in the Philippines. In a follow-up letter to Senator Ed Markey (D-MA), Waymo shared some interesting data. The company currently operates a fleet of 3,000 vehicles but relies on just 70 Remote Assistance Agents at any given time. That breaks down to roughly one remote operator for every 43 Waymos on the road today.

Waymo Ojai Coming This Summer The summer of 2026 is officially going to be the summer of Ojai for Waymo. The company is planning to launch commercial service for its new Chinese-made Zeekr robotaxi (an unforced error, in our opinion) in the coming months. Perhaps they can even celebrate the launch with a bottle or two of Ojai Vineyard’s rosé.

Waymo is Now Stanford Athletics’ Official Ride-Hailing Partner Waymo is now the official ride-hailing partner of Stanford Athletics. It’s the company's first college sports partnership and a homecoming of sorts, as Waymo traces it’s roots back to Stanford's DARPA Grand Challenge days. The deal brings Waymos to campus, complete with designated game-day drop-off zones and in-game stadium signage.

New York Gov. Hochul Backtracks on Autonomous Vehicle Support The narrative in New York just shifted from embracing the future and creating jobs to declaring robotaxis a threat. What caused the reversal? Politics. It’s reprehensible and morally wrong when a massive, vocal special interest group successfully applies political pressure purely for its own survival, while society pays the price. But who needs morals when a special interest group only cares about their own greedy self-interests?

Iowa Politicians Eye Driver-In Mandates and Misguided Autonomous Vehicle Liability Bills Iowa politicians have advanced bills backed by special interest groups (notice a trend here?) that would essentially ban autonomous vehicles in the Hawkeye State. The legislation requires a human driver to be present in all commercial autonomous vehicles, while pinning 100% of the liability directly on the vehicle's owner.

Scout AI Introduces Autonomous Vehicle Orchestrator for Multi-Domain Fleets Defense frontier AI lab Scout AI has publicly showcased their Fury Autonomous Vehicle Orchestrator. Designed for the U.S. military, the foundation model allows operators to coordinate heterogeneous fleets of unmanned air and ground systems simultaneously.

Aurora Expands Service to Arizona Aurora is now operating on a 1,000-mile commercial corridor connecting Arizona to Texas, with safety observers currently in the cab.

📰 Follow @RoadToAutonomy on X for our latest thoughts and insights on the autonomy economy.

SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

The Cybercab Era Begins at Tesla

The first Tesla Cybercab rolled off the line at Giga Texas this week. It is a major milestone for Tesla, as Elon Musk is betting the company's future on autonomy and robotics. While the future is arriving, Tesla still needs to secure NHTSA approval before it can deploy the Cybercab on public roads with paying passengers.

Our take: There is something magical about FSD (Full Self-Driving) and what it enables. Soon, you could go out to dinner, enjoy a bottle of wine or two, and have a Cybercab drive you safely home. Because the vehicle lacks a steering wheel and pedals, we believe it will fundamentally change, and potentially eliminate, the traditional legal risks of enjoying a bottle of wine at dinner. If this holds true, restaurants and bars are going to be massive beneficiaries of Cybercab and autonomous vehicles in general.

Companies Mentioned: $TSLA ( ▲ 0.03% ) 

Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicle category.

THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY PODCAST

An Inside Look into DARPA’s RACER Program

(February 17, 2026) Stuart Young, Program Manager, Tactical Technology Office, DARPA joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss DARPA’s RACER (Robotic Autonomy in Complex Environments with Resiliency) Program and the development of high-speed autonomous vehicles capable of navigating unstructured off-road terrain without maps or GPS.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

ON THE ROAD

Waymo’s Big Miami Plans: Two Depots With the Ability to Scale to Thousands of Vehicles

(February 18, 2026) Grayson Brulte went on the road to Miami to inspect Waymo’s infrastructure buildout across the city, uncovering two depots that reveal the company’s ambitious plans to scale to thousands of vehicles in South Florida.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST

Waymo’s Shocking Data & Uber’s Infrastructure Pivot

(February 21, 2026) This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk unpack a wave of developments reshaping the autonomous vehicle landscape. Data surfacing from a follow-up to a recent Senate hearing reveals that Waymo currently operates 3,000 autonomous vehicles supported by only 70 remote assistance agents worldwide.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X