The Night the Lights Went Out in San Francisco

This Week in the Autonomy Economy, the lights went out in San Francisco, Uber and Lyft are both bringing robotaxis to London, and HYPRLABS came out of stealth.

Last weekend, we packed up our gear and headed to San Francisco to record a podcast with Tim Kentley Klay and take a ride in his new autonomous vehicle which is powered by just 33 watts of compute, with zero simulation and no HD maps. (Watch our drive on YouTube)

HYPR is developing an AI system utilizing an end-to-end neural network that learns continuously from real-world driving data, avoiding the structural noise injected by classical simulation and hand-coded heuristics.

We came away from the ride impressed. Furthermore, it validated our belief that autonomous driving is moving away from heavy-compute systems that over-rely on NVIDIA, shifting instead toward a new architecture that is low-power and highly scalable.

At some point in the future, we would not be surprised to see Waymo follow Tesla, and now Rivian’s lead in developing their own in-house chip architecture. Others will likely follow, and NVIDIA’s virtual monopoly on autonomous driving compute will slowly erode over time.

As we head into the holidays and 2026, expect to see a lot of change in the autonomy economy. To those who celebrate, have a wonderful Christmas. We will be back on Sunday with a new issue of This Week in the Autonomy Economy.

👔The Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy.

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Companies Mentioned: $TSLA ( ▲ 2.11% ), $RIVN ( ▼ 3.37% ), $UBER ( ▼ 2.46% ), $LYFT ( ▼ 1.18% ) 

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

The Night the Lights Went Out in San Francisco

Saturday, December 20th, that’s the night that the lights went out in San Francisco. The blackout didn't just kill the power; it brought Waymo’s fleet to a sudden standstill, causing traffic havoc across the city and messaging spin from Waymo.

In a statement provided to NBC Bay Area, a Waymo spokesperson tried to control the narrative:

Translation: When the infrastructure failed, the vehicles couldn't drive.

While Waymo’s fleet froze in the middle of roads and intersections, Tesla vehicles with FSD engaged navigated the maze of stalled robotaxis and broken traffic lights without issue. Elon Musk confirmed the disparity, posting a single, definitive sentence on X:

This contrast exposes a critical vulnerability that Waymo’s bullish deployment narrative ignores. It raises the question; did cellular outages cripple their remote assistance system?

If the cars truly knew how to navigate a dark intersection (a standard four-way stop procedure), why suspend the service? These aren't edge cases; they are fundamental operational constraints that directly impact unit economics and public trust.

Then there is the contrarian who would say, vision-only systems such as Tesla’s FSD may be technologically inferior today, but they are architecturally superior for one critical reason, they don't collapse when the grid fails. Waymo’s pre-mapped, sensor-heavy operations create multiple points of failure that non-mapped vision-only systems simply don’t have as they do not rely on maps or multiple sensors to make driving decisions.

This isn’t an argument that Musk was right all along. It’s a reminder that robotaxi economics assume 24/7 availability and up-time. Infrastructure fragility is a scaling blocker, and Saturday proved Waymo hasn't solved it yet.

The market has priced in Waymo’s tech leadership, but it hasn't priced in their operational brittleness. Is it time for Waymo to build out an operations team complete with economists and energy specialists, as we have advocated for in past newsletters?

There clearly appears to be a need. Or, as one unnamed Uber executive put it in a since-deleted post on X: "This is why we are developing a hybrid network."

That deleted post was not just a defense of Uber's strategy, it was another signal of the deteriorating relationship between the two companies, a partnership we have long said is on the verge of a divorce.

Divorce or not, Uber and Waymo are clearly gearing up to compete head-to-head with Dallas, San Fransisco and London emerging as the first markets, with Waymo still having to figure out operations.

A commercial robotaxi service cannot come to a grinding halt when the grid goes down. We all saw the lights go out in San Francisco, and we saw the mighty Waymo fall that night.

Our Take: Buckle up. 2026 will be a defining year for the robotaxi market, as current partners become bitter rivals and compete head-to-head in cities around the world.

Companies Mentioned: $UBER ( ▼ 2.46% ), $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.96% ) 

Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category.

Uber is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms category.

ADVOCATING FOR THE AUTONOMY ECONOMY | SPONSORED

Automation and autonomy will strengthen the economy, create jobs, and reduce inflation. Council for Economic Resilience is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American public.

Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group

PIQUING OUR INTEREST

Waymo in Talks to Raise $15bn at $110bn Valuation Waymo had a great 2025. Now, the company is reportedly in talks to raise $15 billion in a round led by Alphabet.

Waymo to Contribute Meaningful to Alphabet’s Earnings in 2027/2028 Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai has told employees that Waymo will contribute meaningfully to group earnings by 2027-28, according to a report by CNBC.

Sterling Anderson Emerges as Frontrunner for GM CEO Role As GM prepares for the future, Sterling Anderson is emerging as the frontrunner for the CEO job, tasked with building the automaker’s software prowess and steering the company back into autonomy.

Tesla Eyes California Robotaxi Expansion Tesla to date has registered 1,655 vehicles for a ride-hailing service in California.

Uber to Bring Baidu Apollo Go Robotaxis to London Beginning in the first half of 2026, Uber will test Baidu Apollo Go robotaxis, with plans to commercialize the service when regulations allow.

Lyft to Bring Baidu Apollo Go Robotaxis to London Fifty minutes after Uber announced they were bringing Baidu Apollo Go robotaxis to London, Lyft announced they were also bringing Baidu’s robotaxis vehicles to the capital.

Grab Invests in Momenta Grab has invested in Momenta and entered into a partnership to bring factory-installed, mass-produced autonomous vehicles to Southeast Asia. This follows Grab’s investment and deployment announcement with May Mobility earlier in the year.

📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.

SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

First, No Safety Attendant. Next, CyberCab.

As 2025 comes to a close, Tesla is autonomously ramping up. First came the confirmation of two robotaxis in Austin operating without safety attendants on public roads. Now, their are employees in the vehicles. Next up is the CyberCab, which has recently been spotted testing on public roads in both Palo Alto and Austin.

Our take: Tesla has “cracked” full self-driving. Now it’s all about scaling.

Companies Mentioned: $TSLA ( ▲ 2.11% ) 

THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY PODCAST

Self-Driving on 33 Watts: How HYPR Labs Trained a Model for Just $850

(December 16, 2025) Tim Kentley Klay, CEO & co-founder of HYPRLABS, joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how the company is achieving autonomous driving in downtown San Francisco using just 33 watts of compute and zero simulation or HD maps.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST

Tesla’s Austin Moment, LiDAR Chapter 11 & HYPR Emerges

(December 20, 2025) This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss HYPR’s emergence from stealth following an exclusive ride, Tesla’s removal of safety attendants in Austin, Waymo’s reported $110 billion valuation, and the speculation of Sterling Anderson becoming the next CEO of GM.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

Companies Mentioned: $TSLA ( ▲ 2.11% ), $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.96% ), $GM ( ▼ 2.66% ) 

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