The Moon Before Manhattan

This Week in the Autonomy Economy, New York City officials said no autonomy for you, Waymo opened the Nashville market, and the CEO of WeRide downplayed the autonomy ambitions of global automakers.

As the Autonomy Economy continues to take shape, an unfortunate trend is emerging in the media. Go bold on the headline, drive clicks and skip the fact checking (that doesn’t matter after all). This was no more evident than this week’s supposed incident involving a duck and an autonomous vehicle in Austin.

We use the term supposed because we do not yet have a full accounting of what occurred. Aside from a handful of Facebook posts, there is no verified record, so we are reserving judgment until a factual report is issued by the relevant parties.

While we wait for all the facts, mainstream headlines have blasted out stories that were, in some cases, factually incorrect, using the wrong company names and incorrect vehicle images. Why is this the new norm? Because we live in a clickbait society. But even in a world of 24/7 noise, the details still matter.

Those details are exactly what we work to uncover for you each and every week. We go beyond the headlines, using our proprietary OMEGA algorithm to conduct initial research before our team reviews the data, crafts the editorial message, and manually writes this newsletter.

Each week, we go behind the headlines to bring you the signals that matter. We surface those signals on our Autonomy Signals podcast and discuss the markets on Autonomy Markets.

The Road to Autonomy is paved with facts that go beyond the headlines. Sometimes the greatest detail is found in the smallest font on a press release in a foreign language. Those are the details that matter and those are the details we will uncover for you.

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

The Moon Before Manhattan

On March 31, Waymo’s autonomous vehicle testing permits in New York City officially expired and were not renewed by the NYC Department of Transportation. Surprised?

We are not. The initial testing permits were issued by the Adams administration in August 2025 and were not renewed by the Mamdani administration. Vin Barone, a spokesperson for the DOT, summed it up well in a statement to The City:

The public safety argument is null and void. Data shows Waymo has reduced crashes involving injuries to vulnerable road users by 92%, with 85% fewer cyclist crashes and 81% fewer motorcycle crashes compared to the average human driver.

Even though the safety narrative has been debunked, it continues to be showcased as the big bad bogeyman. With that messaging on the verge of retirement, new talking points have emerged from special interests. This permit denial wasn't about public risk; it was about appealing to a fragile coalition of advocacy groups with conflicting agendas.

Waymo, however, is not retreating. The company continues to prepare for an eventual deployment by manually driving eight vehicles around Manhattan (south of 112th Street) and Downtown Brooklyn.

Waymo has already spent more than $3 million lobbying NYC and state officials since 2019, and multiple firms remain retained through 2026. Assemblyman Brian Cunningham, sponsor of a bill to remove human-driver requirements, has experienced Waymo rides in Atlanta and plans to bring lawmakers to Phoenix.

The Mamdani administration might be able to stall Waymo’s deployment in the Big Apple, but it cannot stop it. It is now a game of waiting until the economic reality of New York’s economy comes to fruition and voters vote with their pocketbooks.

A political opening is already emerging. A recent Emerson College/PIX11 poll found that 59% of voters believe the city is on the wrong track. While Mayor Mamdani holds a 43% approval rating 100 days in, his support is highly concentrated and subject to a base that is already fracturing.

Even so, we do not see Waymo or any autonomous vehicle company operating in NYC until at least 2029, when potentially a new Mayor may take office. If this timeline holds, we will have autonomous vehicles on the Moon before we have them in New York City as AUTNMY AI co-founder Rob Grant pointed out on this week’s Autonomy Signals episode. Let that sink in for a moment.

In 2028, we will go to the Moon and autonomous vehicles are going with us. But New York? Nah, forget about it. It’s politics over progress.

Our Take: As Frank Sinatra once sang about making it in New York, the same applies to autonomous vehicles. It's up to you, New York, if and when the city gets them.

Companies Mentioned: $GOOGL ( ▼ 0.39% )  

Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicles category.

AUTNMY AI | SPONSORED

PIQUING OUR INTEREST

Waymo Opens Nashville Market Waymo has launched commercial service in Nashville across a 60-square-mile service area including Broadway, Midtown, and East Nashville. Lyft is serving as the fleet-management partner for this market, managing vehicle and fleet operations through its Flexdrive division. Later this year, Waymo vehicles will also be available through the Lyft app. And one more thing, the company is currently testing at the Nashville Airport (BNA).

Waymo Begins Manual Driving in Chicago Could the Windy City become the Waymo City? As Waymo begins manual driving in Chicago, Illinois lawmakers are considering a new bill that would create a legal framework for commercial autonomous vehicle operations across the state.

Waymo’s Ojai (Chinese-made Zeekr) Vehicle Nears Public Launch Waymo is planning to launch rides in the Chinese-made Zeekr autonomous vehicle in San Francisco "soon" as the vehicle has begun to appear in riders' Waymo apps.

Waymo is Planning for Multiple Depots in D.C. Waymo is currently scouting multiple depot sites across the District and plans to implement a multi-site depot strategy when they begin commercial operations.

MOIA America Begins Testing in Los Angeles MOIA America (formerly Volkswagen ADMT) has begun on-road validation testing of its autonomous ID. Buzz vehicles in Los Angeles, with plans to launch a commercial service on the Uber platform by late 2026 with safety drivers.

Travis Kalanick’s Atoms Acquires Pronto In a move long signaled to the market, Atoms has officially acquired Anthony Levandowski’s autonomous haulage company, Pronto.

Kia Unveils Autonomous Driving Roadmap Kia in partnership with NVIDIA, plans to build a data flywheel that will train its proprietary end-to-end autonomous driving models using real-world fleet data. Powered by software architecture from Hyundai’s 42dot division, this dual-track strategy will culminate in the late 2027 launch of Kia's first Software-Defined Vehicle featuring Level 2+ highway autonomy, followed by a rollout of Level 2++ urban autonomous capabilities in early 2029.

Kia to Deploy Humanoid Robots in U.S. Factories in 2029 Kia is investing over $500 million in physical AI and deepening their strategic partnerships with DeepMind and Nvidia to deploy Boston Dynamics' Atlas humanoid robots at their Georgia facility by 2029. Kia will initially use the humanoid for basic manufacturing tasks before leveraging AI to expand its capabilities into higher-value processes.

Tesla FSD Supervised Approved in Netherlands Following an 18-month testing period, the Netherlands Vehicle Authority (RDW) has granted provisional type approval for FSD Supervised, allowing the hands-free, eyes-on advanced driver assistance system to operate on Dutch public roads.

WeRide CEO Downplays Automakers Autonomous Driving Ambitions In a story almost as autonomous driving itself, global automakers are once again developing in-house autonomous vehicle programs, but will they succeed this time? WeRide CEO Tony Han does not think so.

Pony AI Launches PonyWorld Pony AI has launched PonyWorld 2.0, a self-improving world model that automatically diagnoses its own software weaknesses to guide targeted real-world data collection.

📰 Follow @RoadToAutonomy on X for our latest thoughts and insights on the autonomy economy.

SOCIAL BUZZ | DRONES

Wing and DoorDash Expand to the Atlanta Region

DoorDash and Alphabet's Wing are expanding service to Locust Grove, Georgia, a historic railroad town located roughly 40 miles from Atlanta.

Our take: This expansion builds upon their joint-deployments in Virginia, North Carolina, and Texas. While a positive signal, it is abundantly clear that we are still in the early stages of drone deliveries, and a majority of these deliveries are happening in suburban regions, not dense cities, yet.

Companies Mentioned: $GOOGL ( ▼ 0.39% ), $DASH ( ▼ 1.28% ) 

THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY PODCAST

From DARPA RACER to the Battlefield

(April 7, 2026) Greg Okopal, Co-Founder & COO, Overland AI joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the founding of Overland AI at University of Washington.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

AUTONOMY SIGNALS PODCAST

Self-Driving Cars on the Moon Before New York City?

(April 9, 2026) This week on Autonomy Signals, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss the Artemis II mission, Amazon's coordinated embodied AI acquisitions, HD Hyundai's Avikus DNV maritime autonomy certification from Norway, and declining AI bubble odds on Polymarket.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST

Europe’s First Robotaxi Launches on Uber as NYC Stalls Waymo

(April 11, 2026) This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Uber and VW validating the ID. Buzz in Los Angeles as they prepare for commercial service, Europe’s first commercial robotaxi service, and Waymo’s New York City dilemma.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X