- The Road to Autonomy
- Posts
- Mobileye Sure Doesn't Lack Confidence, But Can It Deliver L4?
Mobileye Sure Doesn't Lack Confidence, But Can It Deliver L4?
This Week in The Autonomy Economy
The Road to Autonomy
April 26, 2026
This Week in the Autonomy Economy, Mobileye made a bold proclamation, China's Autonomous Belt and Road Initiative is accelerating, and Tesla began production of Cybercab at Giga Texas.
As the autonomy economy continues to take shape globally, we headed to the Permian Basin to visit with Kodiak and get an on-the-ground look at their operations in the oil fields of West Texas and Eastern New Mexico.
The terrain was unforgiving and traditional over-the-road trucks were getting eaten alive by the larger-than-life potholes, while the Permian-hardened Kodiak trucks autonomously drove down the bumpy, sandy road without a human in the cab.
Next month, we will be releasing a field report complete with video from our trip to the Permian Basin. Field reports are something we are leaning into, and in fact, we are heading on the road again this week to conduct field work, visit with several companies, experience rides in new environments, and witness something historic.
In addition to an increase in field work, we are in the process of updating and expanding the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD. We will share more details on that over the coming weeks.
This quarter, we downgraded PlusAI from positive to neutral with a #T-4 ranking in the autonomous trucking category as their SPAC merger with Churchill Capital IX was terminated. We also downgraded Uber from bullish to positive, while retaining their position in the software platforms category, because of the risks emerging in the company's autonomous vehicle strategy.
As you will gather this week, autonomy has gone global, and we are going to go where the deployments are to bring you the ground-truth on what really is happening and what is not happening.
Our goal is to keep you ahead and give you our opinion on what we see and read, while others simply regurgitate headlines.
WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
Mobileye Sure Doesn't Lack Confidence, But Can It Deliver L4?
Autonomous VW ID. Buzz | Source: VW
During Mobileye's Q1 2026 earnings call, EVP of Business Development and Strategy Nimrod Nehushtan made a bold proclamation that gave us pause. We hit rewind and double-checked the transcript when he said the following during the Q&A section of the call:
If I may add to this, if you see the communications from other companies on robotaxi launches, it is primarily either in China or in the U.S. You see much less news coming for the European market.
We think that some of the reasons for that are the regulatory requirements in Europe that we have been actively working on with VW for the past year and a half almost.
Through this engagement, we have exposure to how regulators view this business, and they do require specific KPIs and very detailed explanations on validation concepts and testing methodologies, how you overcome different unexpected events and safety assurances, etc. It is much more nuanced than just the high-level technological debate that is being made on public stages.
We think we have a significant advantage in being fairly advanced in this process, and this will prove, we believe, as a competitive advantage in the next few years, being one of the only, if not the only, robotaxi enablers in the European market, which in and of itself has potential of tens of millions of commuters.
Being one of the only, if not the only, robotaxi enabler in Europe is a bold statement, and one that we fundamentally discount. Mobileye has left behind a boulevard of broken promises and bold proclamations that have never materialized.
Mobileye has been promising robotaxis for nearly a decade, yet the company has no driver-out, fully autonomous commercial service in operation today. In contrast, Waymo operates fully autonomous commercial service in 11 cities and provides over 500,000 paid fully autonomous rides per week.
Plus, Waymo is currently hiring an EMEA regulatory counsel and the company has met with EU officials where they discussed deploying Waymo vehicles on the European continent. By the time Mobileye clears the EU's homologation bar in 2027 with VW for the autonomous ID. Buzz, Waymo will be operating a fully autonomous commercial service in London, with the EU most likely the next destination on its global expansion map.
Facts make Mobileye's bold proclamation even weaker. In 2021, Mobileye announced a partnership with European rental car company Sixt to launch a robotaxi service in Munich by 2022. That deployment never materialized, and the service never launched. The announcement simply faded into the night.
That same year, Mobileye announced a partnership with Lohr and Transdev to deploy autonomous shuttles in Europe in 2023 and then expand globally. The shuttles never went into commercial service. Then in 2022, Mobileye announced a partnership with Udelv to deploy 50,000 autonomous Transporters on public roads by 2028. Another deployment that will not materialize.
Confidence is a virtue when paired with execution. Mobileye has the confidence, but execution has not kept pace with the boastfulness. Despite the headlines, press releases, and bold proclamations, there is currently no commercial fully autonomous robotaxi service anywhere in the world powered by Mobileye's autonomous driving system.
This could change in 2027 when and if VW removes the safety driver from the ID. Buzz, but by then Waymo will be operating fully autonomous commercial service in multiple countries and most likely across more than 30 cities.
Waymo has earned the right to have the confidence, but instead of shipping press releases and making bold statements about the future, they are delivering millions of fully autonomous commercial miles, as the company is well on its way to becoming a verb.
Waymo has delivered L4 without the boast. Can Mobileye follow suit and deliver L4 for VW and their partner Uber? Only time will tell if Mobileye finally breaks the pattern and a partner delivers a fully autonomous robotaxi service without a human in the vehicle powered by Mobileye that can scale globally.
Our Take: Will 2027 be the year a Mobileye partner launches and operates a commercial fully autonomous robotaxi service?
Companies Mentioned: $MBLY ( ▲ 6.09% ) , $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.63% ) , $VLKAY ( ▼ 0.99% )
AUTNMY AI | SPONSORED
Intelligence for the autonomy economy
Right now, somewhere, a company
is making a move in plain sight.
The Street reads the headline.
AUTNMY AI sees the signal.
Will you?
Qualitative intelligence
generates alpha.
AUTNMY
AI
Your models. Our intelligence.
Learn MorePIQUING OUR INTEREST
Zoox Prepares to Launch Miami Service Zoox is preparing to deploy its bespoke robotaxis in the Edgewater and Beverly Terrace neighborhoods of Miami for employee testing, with plans to open an early rider program later in the year.
Zoox Begins Testing at the Las Vegas Airport Zoox has begun testing its bespoke robotaxi at the Las Vegas Airport with employees.
U.S. Army Advances Autonomous Vehicle Strategy The U.S. Army is actively developing an autonomous tactical wheeled vehicle strategy to enhance battlefield logistics and keep soldiers out of harm's way, but the military must still overcome challenges around vehicle testing and procurement.
PlusAI and Churchill Capital Corp IX Terminate SPAC PlusAI and Churchill Capital Corp IX have terminated their planned business combination, citing market conditions.
Nissan has Big Plans for Next-Gen ProPilot System Nissan is planning to launch its next-generation ProPilot Assist in Japan in 2027, an L4-capable system the company is marketing as L2++ for liability and regulatory reasons.
Kakao Mobility is Developing an In-House Autonomous Driving System Known as the Uber of South Korea, Kakao Mobility is developing an in-house Level 4 autonomous driving system and opening its datasets, HD maps, and APIs to the domestic industry to establish what it calls a "K-autonomous driving open ecosystem" capable of competing globally.
China's Growing Autonomous Ambitions At Auto China 2026 in Beijing, China's grand autonomy ambitions were on display as the country doubles down on exporting autonomous driving to the world as part of what we have coined the Autonomous Belt and Road Initiative.
DeepRoute AI’s ADAS Software is Now in Over 300,000 Vehicles Over 300,000 vehicles in China are now equipped with Chinese autonomous driving developer DeepRoute.ai's ADAS software, as the company targets an additional 1 million vehicles by the end of the year.
Lenovo and WeRide Target 200,000 Robotaxis by 2031 Lenovo and WeRide are planning to deploy 200,000 robotaxis over the next five years, powered by Lenovo's AD1 domain controller built on NVIDIA DRIVE AGX Thor.
Geely’s CaoCao Targets 100,000 Robotaxis by 2030 CaoCao plans to deploy thousands of its bespoke Eva Cab robotaxis globally next year, scaling to 100,000 vehicles by 2030, with initial rollouts in Abu Dhabi, Hong Kong, and five mainland Chinese cities.
Pony AI Focuses on Global Expansion Pony AI is planning to operate more than 3,000 robotaxis across 20 cities globally by end-2026, with nearly half of that footprint outside mainland China.
Huawei Commits $11.7 Billion to Autonomous Driving Compute Huawei is committing $11.7 billion over five years to compute infrastructure for autonomous driving, claiming it will outspend every rival combined to defend its ADAS lead in China.
📰 Follow @RoadToAutonomy on X for our latest thoughts and insights on the autonomy economy.
SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
Cybercab Production Begins as Tesla Builds Dedicated Robotaxi Infrastructure
This week, Cybercab entered production at Giga Texas, just as Tesla begins to ramp Robotaxi unsupervised, now available in three markets: Austin, Dallas, and Houston.
Last month we visited Tesla and toured the Cybercab line at Giga Texas, which we released as a field report you can read here. What we saw on the line was a maniacal focus on safety, cost, and scaling.
Tesla has all the ingredients to scale, and now permit filings from Chandler and Mesa, Arizona show that Tesla is planning to build non-public charging sites designed exclusively for Robotaxi.
Our proprietary OMEGA algorithm uncovered these permit filings. If you are interested in learning more about AUTNMY AI’s OMEGA, please send an email to [email protected].
Our take: Building robotaxis is one thing. Operating them at scale is another, and that takes infrastructure. Tesla is now putting all the pieces together to scale a robotaxi service.
Companies Mentioned: $TSLA ( ▲ 0.69% )
Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicles category.
THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY PODCAST
Deploying Autonomous Trucks at NASA Speed
(April 21, 2026) Kelly Smith, Lead Systems Engineer for Autonomy, Kodiak joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss deploying autonomous trucks at NASA speed.
AUTONOMY SIGNALS PODCAST
When a Military Signal Isn't Necessarily a Commercial One
(April 24, 2026) This week on Autonomy Signals, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss autonomous military cargo helicopters, Caterpillar's acquisition of Monarch Tractor's intellectual property, and the termination of the PlusAI and Churchill Capital IX SPAC merger.
AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST
Tesla’s Dedicated Superchargers Signal the Real Strategy as Robotaxi Scale Delayed
(April 25, 2026) This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla’s dedicated Supercharger build-out for Robotaxi in Arizona, Kodiak’s autonomous trucking operations in the Permian Basin, and Mobileye’s defensive posture on their Q1 earnings call.
The Road to Autonomy® is an applied intelligence platform owned and operated by AUTNMY AI, Inc. All content, including market intelligence and the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD, is provided for informational and educational purposes only. AUTNMY AI, Inc. is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner, and does not provide financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing herein constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product. All investments involve risk. Content is provided "as is" and is subject to change without notice. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution, including the use of this content for training large language models (LLMs) or generative AI systems, is strictly prohibited without prior written consent.