Investor Interest in Autonomy Surges Post-Election

This Week in The Autonomy Economy, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 4.83%, Donald J. Trump became the 47th President of the United States, investor interest in autonomy surged post-election and Waymo’s pricing and wait times have declined as the service scales in San Francisco.

History was made on November 5th. President Trump became only the second U.S. President in history to serve two non-consecutive terms as President. The first was President Grover Cleveland in 1885 and 1893.

With President Trump returning to The White House on January 20, 2025, investors are preparing a period of deregulation and pro-business policies that will accelerate the economy. On the news of Trump’s election, the Dow Joes soared 1,500 points on investor enthusiasm.

That enthusiasm has carried over to the autonomy economy, Tesla’s stock surged 35% this week as investors pin their hopes on a national autonomous vehicle framework. A national autonomous vehicle framework in theory would allow Tesla to sell the Cybercab in all 50 states.

The days of California over regulating autonomy is about to come to an end. The Golden State will open to autonomy with a national framework. The political uncertainty around New Mexico mandating that a driver must be present in an autonomous truck will dissolve.

Autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks will be able to drive in all 50 states. Investors will have regulatory certainty and they will invest heavily in autonomy. We are seeing this in the public markets with Tesla and we are seeing this in the private markets as well.

Since 7am on November 6th, the amount of inbound calls and emails we have received from investors about autonomy has been astonishing. We are on the verge of entering the golden age of autonomy.

As we prepare to enter the golden age of autonomy, it is vitally important that the autonomous vehicle industry comes together and welcomes Tesla in from the cold.

Tesla has been left in the cold for too long. The pendulum has shifted and now Tesla holds the power. It’s time to welcome them into the fold and form a unified autonomous vehicle coalition for the benefit of the American public.

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMY ECONOMY

Investor Interest in Autonomy Surges Post-Election

This week, Tesla’s stock returned 31.46%. Elon Musk’s bet on a Trump victory paid off handsomely, as Mr. Musk’s net worth increased $50 billion this week. Surpassing $300 billion for the first time in three years. 

While Tesla had an incredible week, it was not just about Tesla. It was about autonomy and what could happen under a second Trump administration that caught investor’s attention. 

Mr. Musk is betting the future of Tesla on autonomy and investors are beginning to become confident that with Republicans controlling both Houses of Congress (likely) and The White House, that the current regulatory roadblocks to scaling autonomy will come to an end. 

We are fully expecting Republicans to introduce and for President Trump to sign a national autonomous vehicle framework that creates regulatory certainty for autonomous vehicles and autonomous trucks weighing over 10,001 pounds. 

President-elect Trump has signaled this is about the U.S. economy and not playing second fiddle to China. America learned a hard lesson when the electric vehicle supply chain was outsourced to China. Now with that lesson learned and Mr. Musk playing a pivotal role in the Trump administration, autonomy is about to thrive in America and investors are taking notice. 

Our take: The Future is Bright. The Future is Autonomous. The Future is the Autonomy Economy.

Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicle category. 

Tesla is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company

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Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group that is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American people.

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Comparing Uber, Waymo Pricing & Wait Times in San Francisco

The team at Evercore ISI put out a report on November 3rd comparing pricing and wait times for both Uber and Waymo in San Francisco. With a dataset* of 1,000 rides encompassing Waymo, Uber, and Lyft, the analysts came to the conclusion that Waymo’s pricing and wait times are declining as the service scales. 

Price & Wait Time: Waymo vs. UberX & Lyft, Q3 – Q4 in San Francisco: 

1. Waymo was 2.7% more expensive than UberX in Q4 (vs. 22% more expensive in Q3)

2. Waymo was 2% less expensive than Lyft in Q4 (vs. 14% more expensive in Q3)

3. Waymo wait time was 1.09 min longer than UberX in Q4 (vs. 2.25 min longer in Q3)

As the Waymo fleet scales, the cost per ride is dropping and is close to becoming par with UberX. When Waymo is compared to premium rideshare rides (Uber Comfort and Lyft Extra Comfort), Waymo is less expensive. 

1. Waymo was 16.7% less expensive than Uber Comfort in Q4 (vs. 8.3% less in Q3) 

2. Waymo was 14.4% less expensive than Lyft Extra Comfort in Q4 

3. Waymo wait time was 2.07 min longer than UberX in Q4 (vs. 3.02 min longer in Q3)

If the trend of Waymo underpricing rideshare premium rides continues and the service can achieve pricing par with Uber X, Waymo One will see increased adoption. 

If and when this happens, Waymo will have exploited Uber’s achilles heel—an inconsistent product. But even with their achilles heel exposed, Uber still stands to benefit from the growth of Waymo and autonomy in general, as Waymo needs access to the Uber platform and their service provider network. Without a network to connect riders and maintenance partners, autonomy doesn’t scale. 

At the end of the day, Uber could become the Amazon AWS of autonomy and Waymo could become the Netflix of autonomy. In the early days of video streaming, both Netflix and AWS were codependent upon each other. When Netflix started its pivot to a streaming service, they needed an infrastructure partner and Amazon needed public validation and high-profile partners as they ramped up AWS. Today, both companies are widely successful and they are no longer codependent upon each other as they once were in the late 2000's early 2010's.

*Evercore ISI Methodology (Dataset) Evercore ISI tracked Prices and Wait Times for 500 trips in each Q3 (July) and Q4 (October) (1,000 total trips) across 20 unique routes in San Francisco in July on Waymo, Uber, & Lyft. Each route was priced 5 times using Waymo, Uber, Uber Comfort, Lyft, and Lyft Extra Comfort. Routes varied in distance (between 0.7 miles and 13.8 miles) and were priced at different times of the day including during peak traffic hours (8-9am and 5-6pm) and off-peak hours.

Our take: In the early days of robotaxis, Waymo and Uber will complement each other and support each other’s growth trajectory. Whether or not they complement each other long-term will all depend on the decisions made as both as Waymo and Uber scale their autonomous vehicle businesses. 

Waymo is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category. 

Uber is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the software platforms vehicle category. 

Uber and Waymo parent Alphabet are The Road to Autonomy Index component companies

PIQUING OUR INTEREST

Lyft Re-Enters Autonomy This week Lyft announced autonomous driving ecosystem partnerships with May Mobility, Mobileye and Nexar. The first May Mobility autonomous vehicles on the Lyft network comes online in 2025 in Atlanta.

Plus is Testing Autonomous Trucks in Texas Plus is testing SAE Level 4 autonomous trucks in partnership with International on Texas roads.

California Public Utilities Commission Mandates More Data In the days after the Presidential election the CPUC is now mandating enhanced data reporting requirements for autonomous vehicles.

NHTSA Raises Concerns About Tesla’s FSD Social Media Posts First California demands more data, next NHTSA raises concerns about Tesla’s Full Self-Driving posts. The daggers appear to be out for Tesla and autonomy as the Biden administration wraps up it’s term.

Teleo Collaborates with State of Montana to Create New Jobs for Veterans Teleo is taking their supervised autonomy approach for heavy machinery and creating jobs for veterans in Montana.

Deploying Autonomous Trucks at Scale in Greater Nammuldi Rio Tinto is currently operating a fleet of 50 autonomous trucks at Greater Nammuldi in Western Australia.

Is It Autonomous? The United States Secret Service has deployed a Boston Dynamics robotic dog at Mar-a-Lago as part of President Trump’s increased security.

📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on Autonomy Times. Visit Autonomy Times today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.

SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Zoox Hits The Streets of San Francisco

Multiple photos and videos have started appearing online of Zoox testing the “Zoox Mobile” in San Francisco. Could this be the start of Zoox ramping up operations or is this just enhanced testing in the SoMa (South of Market) area of San Francisco? Either way, it is a positive step for the company. 

Our take: If these vehicles are being used to actively move employees around the city, Zoox should signal that to the market along with a clear commercial deployment schedule. 

Zoox is currently ranked #3 with a neutral outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous vehicle category. 

Zoox parent Amazon is a The Road to Autonomy Index component company

SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

Are The Markets Underestimating Autonomous Vehicles?

That is what Bank of America Automotive Equity Research analyst John Murphy thinks. Mr. Murphy is correct. There is a massive investment opportunity in autonomy today, as autonomy will become its own economy that we have deemed the autonomy economy.

Our take: If Congress sends President-elect Trump a national autonomous vehicle framework to sign into law that includes vehicles with a gross weight over 10,001 pounds, investor interest in autonomy will skyrocket. 

THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY INDEX WEEKLY PERFORMANCE

The Road to Autonomy Index® is a high-definition lens into the emerging world of autonomous vehicles and trucks. It is the world’s first and only pure-play index designed to measure the performance of the autonomous vehicle/truck market.

For the week of November 4th, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 4.83%, the S&P 500 returned 4.66% and the NASDAQ 100 returned 5.41%. The Road to Autonomy Index outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.17% and underperformed the NASDAQ 100 by 0.58%.

Year to Date (YTD), The Road to Autonomy Index has returned 21.65%

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THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY PODCAST

Tesla’s CyberCab Insurance Challenge: How Will Personally Owned Autonomous Vehicles Get Coverage?

(November 4, 2024) Sergey Litvinenko, Co-Founder & CEO, Koop joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss insuring personally owned autonomous vehicles beginning with the Tesla Cybercab.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST

Self Driving's Next Chapter: Trump Policies, Lyft Partnerships, and Musk's Influence

(November 9, 2024) The election of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States could dramatically reshape the autonomous vehicle industry, with Elon Musk positioned as a key influence in the new administration. A national framework for autonomous vehicles and trucks is expected to be a top priority, potentially overriding state-specific regulations like California's strict regulations.

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