History Rhymes, and China is Listening

This Week in the Autonomy Economy, Waymo opened service to the general public in Orlando and Miami, Uber doubled down on Lucid, and Japan is aiming to secure a 25% share of the global autonomous vehicle market by the 2030s.

With the Japanese Government's staunch commitment to the autonomous vehicle industry and their desire to control 25% of the market, Toyota becomes one of the most interesting companies to watch in this sector and Tokyo one of the most important cities to watch.

As we watch for Toyota's next autonomous moves, one must pay close attention to their relationship with Waymo and what comes out of the strategic partnership which was announced in April 2025.

While we wait for signals from Japan, robotaxis continue to scale in California. Commercial robotaxi rides in the state have grown from fewer than 200,000 in May 2024 to over 1.2 million in December 2025, a 500% increase. Robotaxis are scaling in California and as we write about below, China is watching closely.

This week we are back on the road conducting field work. We are heading west to where the oil flows and the trucks never stop.

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | POLICY

History Rhymes, and China is Listening

Rent-seeking is not a new strategy. It is a tried and proven one, recycled across sectors of the economy whenever an incumbent feels threatened. Sometimes the tactic is subtle. Sometimes it is obvious. At the end of the day, the public always uncovers the truth.

The special interest groups running this playbook today seem to think the public has not caught on yet, but they have, thanks in part to Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter, which was rebranded X. Along with rebranding, censorship and visibility filtering went away. The public is no longer in the dark, and the recycled tactics of protectionism are visible for all to see.

Even though the tactics of protectionism are more visible than in the past, a small but vocal group of special interests continues to deploy the playbook even as skepticism grows and the public catches on. Why? Because it was a tried and true strategy that worked for decades and old habits die hard.

While old habits might die hard, the tactics used to deploy them only seem to evolve to fit the narrative of the moment, and that narrative is now that automation and autonomy are bad for the economy. This narrative is music to the ears of China, and the country is proactively looking to capitalize on this by implementing export controls and deploying a strategy which we call the Autonomous Belt and Road Initiative.

Nowhere is this strategy more obvious today than in Europe and the Middle East. There are more Chinese-made autonomous vehicles operating in Europe and the Middle East than the U.S. and Europe combined. This was not by accident; this was by strategy.

If you think this strategy ends in Europe, think again. China has grand ambitions and they would love to export this strategy to America. Elected officials must ask themselves, do they want the future of the autonomy economy to run through China or America? That is the stark choice that has to be made, and rent-seeking strategies have the potential to shift it to the East.

Which takes us back to the future. When Uber and Lyft were first emerging as reliable alternatives to taxis, the outcry from certain special interest groups was over the top and alarmist. Despite their vocal opposition, both Uber and Lyft scaled, went public, and became part of everyday life in society.

The sky did not fall down and jobs did not go away. In fact, it has been estimated that Uber and Lyft have created income opportunities for over 10 million individuals around the world. So what do you do when you are a special interest group who opposed Uber and Lyft and your opposition backfired and your narrative was proven highly inaccurate? You switch tactics and deploy a regulatory capture strategy.

This happened in California with AB5, which was signed into law by Governor Gavin Newsom in September 2019 and officially went into effect on January 1, 2020. Then what happened? The public saw the shenanigans and headed to the ballot box, overriding AB5 with Prop 22, which carved rideshare drivers out of AB5 and allowed drivers to keep their independence. The public spoke.

They saw what was happening and they did not buy it, which brings us to today. Autonomous vehicles are the new rideshare platforms, and this time rideshare is good and autonomous vehicles are bad. See a pattern here? It is obvious what is happening here. It is not about the public; it is about protecting the interests of those special interests that fear the future.

After all, elevators are autonomous today and we can thank a decision that occurred in September 1945 for accelerating the adoption of automated elevators. When the Elevator Operators' Union went on strike demanding higher wages, the public in New York City was forced to walk dozens of flights of stairs, and then the public turned on the union. The union overplayed their hand, and the public began to ride in automated elevators, something a majority of the public previously feared.

There is another similarity here. Multiple reports, many of which we disagree with, report that the public is uncomfortable riding in an autonomous vehicle. If an event such as the one that happened in September 1945 occurs today, history will repeat itself and the public will accept autonomous vehicles as part of everyday life. The exact same way that you and I use an elevator today: you hit a button and it simply works. No having to say "10th floor, please."

History is a wonderful guide to help understand the future and to uncover and decipher trends and patterns. The trend here is obvious, even though the narrative is always changing. Stand in the way of new, emerging technology that is widely viewed as a threat.

Then, once a newer technology comes along, suddenly support the one you originally fought, and champion it. This is a story as old as time itself.

Unfortunately, we do not have Mark Twain around anymore to offer his wit. But if he were here, he would likely sum up this entire charade with his most famous observation: "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes."

Our Take: The war against autonomous vehicles is not about public safety; it is a textbook case of rent-seeking disguised as consumer protection. Special interest groups are simply recycling the fear-mongering tactics they used a decade ago to fight rideshare, hoping the public will not notice the narrative rhymes.

Companies Mentioned: $UBER ( ▼ 0.84% ) , $LYFT ( ▼ 3.95% )  

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California Robotaxi Rides Soar 500% in 19 Months Who ever said roboatxis won’t scale? Commercial roboatxi rides in California have grown from fewer than 200,000 in May 2024 to over 1.2 million in December 2025, a 500% increase.

Waymo Opens Service in Orlando and Miami Bye bye early riders, hello all riders. Waymo has opened service to the general public in both the Orlando and Miami markets, while simultaneously launching highway service in Miami. Is a connection to Hard Rock Stadium next?

Uber Appears to be Doubling Down on Lucid Uber continues to invest in Lucid through an additional $200 million commitment and plans to purchase at least 35,000 Lucid vehicles designed for robotaxi service.

Uber’s Robotaxi Investments are $10 Billion and Counting Uber has gone from owning ATG, to becoming asset-light, to once again owning assets. This time, instead of running a robotaxi program internally, the company has committed over $10 billion to purchasing robotaxis and taking equity stakes in autonomous vehicle and car companies.

Wayve Extends Series D with $60M from AMD, Arm and Qualcomm Wayve has extended its Series D with a $60 million investment from AMD, Arm and Qualcomm Ventures.

80,000 Square Foot Depot, With Satellite Depots on the Way Flexdrive by Lyft is constructing an 80,000-square-foot purpose-built depot in Nashville to service, charge and maintain Waymo's autonomous fleet in Music City, with satellite depots around the region to follow.

Maryland Legislative Session Ends Without Autonomous Vehicle Legislation Maryland lawmakers closed their legislative session without passing the two bills that would have authorized autonomous vehicles to operate in the state, stalling Waymo's planned Baltimore expansion.

No Surprise, Illinois Labor Unions Lobby Against Waymo's Chicago Expansion The American Federation of Labor has sent Illinois Governor JB Pritzker a letter urging the Governor to reject legislation that would authorize an autonomous vehicle pilot program in Cook County, arguing that autonomous vehicles threaten rideshare and transit jobs.

Japan Targets 25% Global Share of Autonomous Vehicle Market by 2030s The Japanese government has released a draft roadmap aiming to secure a 25% share of the global self-driving vehicle market by the 2030s to address critical national labor shortages in the transport and logistics sectors.

Pony AI Launches Fully Autonomous Robotaxi Trials in Dubai Pony AI has begun testing fully autonomous robotaxis in Dubai in collaboration with the Roads and Transport Authority (RTA), with plans to launch commercial service with hundreds of vehicles later this year.

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SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

First Austin, Now Dallas and Houston

Tesla has expanded its Unsupervised Robotaxi service to Dallas and Houston. However, data from Robotaxi Tracker suggests the rollout remains extremely cautious, with reportedly only one vehicle active in each market.

This footprint follows a persistent trend of limited unsupervised deployment as Tesla inches closer to true commercial service. While these new markets provide a positive signal for expansion, they currently lack the scale necessary to truly compete with Waymo. In order to compete with Waymo, Tesla has to launch new markets with hundreds of vehicles.

Our take: Opening the Dallas and Houston markets is a positive step, but not a material move yet as the there is no scale.

Companies Mentioned: $TSLA ( ▼ 2.48% ), $GOOGL ( ▼ 0.77% ) 

Tesla is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the personally owned autonomous vehicles category.

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