AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD Q2 2025 Update 🚗 🚚

This Week in The Autonomy Economy, Q2 2025 AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD update was released, Kodiak started the process of going public and Lyft acquired FREENOW in a transaction that will see the company expand to the UK and Europe.

Lyft is no longer the company it was just two years ago. It is now being run as a business under David Risher’s leadership as it has shifted gears to focus on growth. One of the growth drivers has been the company’s highly successful partnership with J.P. Morgan which has accounted for over 200 million rides.

With growth occurring in the U.S., Lyft is now expanding to the UK and Europe for the first time through their acquisition of FREENOW. This deal gives Lyft a clear path to deploy robotaxis the U.S., UK and Europe.

While we do not know exactly what is next for Lyft, we do know that it is a different company than it was in early 2023 prior to David Risher’s transformation. Now the question becomes, what’s the next big move?

📩The Road to Autonomy platforms are now open to advertising. If you are interested in advertising on our platforms, please visit our Advertising Opportunities page.

Companies Mentioned: $LYFT ( ▲ 2.95% )

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD

AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD Q2 2025 Update

AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD

Strengthening Leaders, Rising Challengers, and the Risk of Complacency

Another quarter has passed in the autonomy economy, and the industry leaders have only grown stronger. Over the past three months, Wayve signed its first OEM deal with Nissan, Kodiak initiated the process to go public, and Nuro raised $106 million at a $6 billion valuation.

Even as the market matures, fragmentation is inevitable. When that moment arrives, Waymo will face its biggest challenge yet, competing in a world where autonomous vehicles exist across multiple platforms from multiple deep-pocketed competitors.

How will Waymo adapt? Will they continue scaling Waymo One or double down on their Uber partnership? Or even perhaps partner with Lyft?

This comes on the heels of investor concerns that Waymo is becoming “too big,” weighed down by corporate bloat and the inability to make decisions quickly. Some investors worry Waymo could miss a pivotal shift in autonomy, much like Google (Alphabet) missed GenAI, despite the 2017 “Attention Is All You Need” paper, which ignited the GenAI revolution and served as the basis for ChatGPT being written by Google Brain researchers.

Ask yourself: When was the last time you used Google Search? Did you use it today? Months ago, it was a daily habit, even hourly. Now, you might only use it a few times a day, or perhaps not at all. Waymo risks becoming the next Google Search if it lets complacency creep in, the same way it did at Google.

Complacency can appear overnight out of the middle of nowhere and then it eventually unfortunately morphs its way into the corporate culture. When compliancy begins to affect Waymo is anyone’s guess, but we do know that Waymo is going to face their own ChatGPT moment when Tesla launches FSD Unsupervised.

That moment will hit like a Mike Tyson punch in his prime and it will sting for weeks. Will Waymo nurse the blow or will they comeback like Buster Douglas and knockout the competition?

Despite these concerns, we are reaffirming Waymo’s #1 ranking in autonomous vehicles category with a bullish outlook for the next quarter, but we will be watching for any signs of compliancy that might begin to set in at the company.

When Tesla launches FSD Unsupervised in June, Waymo will have it’s first true competitor since Cruise. Unlike Cruise, Elon Musk does not shy away from controversy. Mr. Musk can take the jabs and he can give them back, plus he has the ear of The President.

With the progress that Tesla continues to make on FSD Supervised, we are reaffirming their #1 ranking in the personally-owned autonomous vehicles category with a bullish outlook.

As Tesla prepares to launch FSD Unsupervised in Austin this July, Zoox continues to move at the speed of Zoox. Zoox, owned by Amazon seemingly has no ambition and no real clear timeline for launching commercial service. While they’ve said they’ll launch in Las Vegas later this year, there’s still no formal confirmation.

We have growing concerns about Zoox’s ability to launch and scale a commercial robotaxi service at scale. Due to a lack of operational clarity and commercial timelines, we are downgrading Zoox to neutral while maintaining the company’s #2 ranking in the autonomous vehicles category.

Nipping at Zoox’s heels is Wayve, which recently signed its first OEM deal with Nissan, a deal that we fully expect to the first of many. Alex Kendall, CEO of Wayve is doing a phenomenal job as he continues to build what could become one of the most important companies in autonomy.

We are reaffirming Wayve’s #3 ranking in autonomous vehicles category and #1 in the licensing category, both with bullish outlooks. If Wayve continues to progress at this pace, Wayve is poised to challenge both Waymo and Tesla.

Then there is May Mobility that also continues to impress. We’re reaffirming their #4 ranking in autonomous vehicles category with a positive outlook, as the company prepares to launch with Lyft in Atlanta later this year.

As autonomy evolves, licensing is emerging as one of the most important markets in autonomy. While Wayve is leading, Nuro is not far behind. With their expansion into Japan and a recent capital raise, we are fully expecting an OEM announcement from Nuro in the coming months.

This quarter we are reaffirming Nuro’s #2 ranking in the licensing category with a positive outlook.

Autonomous Trucking: The Momentum Continues to Build

From passenger cars to trucks, autonomy is transforming the transportation ecosystem. In trucking, the momentum is undeniable.

On April 14th, Kodiak started the process to go public with a $2.5 billion valuation and a 100-truck order from Atlas Energy Solutions. After reviewing their investor presentation (PDF), it became very evident that Kodiak is firing on all cylinders. We are reaffirming Kodiak’s #1 ranking in autonomous trucks category with a bullish outlook.

Aurora, Kodiak’s top competitor is preparing to launch driver-out commercial operations this month, most likely with PACCAR trucks. When Aurora launches driver-out commercial operations, it will be a historic milestone and a new chapter in Aurora’s autonomous journey. We are reaffirming Aurora’s #1 ranking (tied with Kodiak) with a bullish outlook.

Beyond Kodiak and Aurora, Torc, Bot Auto, and Plus are all showing a ton of promise. Torc, an independent subsidiary of Daimler Truck is targeting a 2027 commercial launch and recently hired Steve Kenner as Chief Safety Officer. Mr. Kenner is one of the best in the business and brings decades of experience to the team at Torc. We are reaffirming Torc’s #2 ranking in the autonomous trucking category with a positive outlook.

Bot Auto is further along technically than Torc, as they are preparing for a 2025 driver-out launch in Texas. Earlier in the year, we visited with Bot Auto and went for a hour long ride with no interventions, and we will soon again be meeting with Bot Auto to get a further update on the progress that the team is making.

As Bot Auto continues to make great progress, we are reaffirming their #3 ranking in the autonomous trucks category with a positive outlook and placing the company on upgrade watch.

Another autonomous trucking company emerging with a bright future is Plus. Plus continues to make steady progress towards their 2027 commercial launch the TRATON GROUP in Texas. We are reaffirming Plus’s #4 ranking in the autonomous trucks category, while placing the company on upgrade watch.

Rounding out the autonomous trucking category are Waabi and Stack AV, two companies that are currently in the midst of messaging challenges. Does Waabi want to be a simulation company? An Autonomous trucking company? Or do they want to be a Wayve-like company? Or do they want to be an everything company?

At the end of the day, what type of company does Waabi truly want to be? Will the real Waabi please stand up?

We along with a majority of the market remain uncertain and are reaffirming Waabi’s #5 ranking in the autonomous trucking category with a neutral outlook.

Stack AV, in contrast, simply isn’t communicating. With no public updates or roadmap, it is unclear where they stand, despite having an extremely talented team. With a lack of information and insight, we are reaffirming our #6 ranking in the autonomous trucks category with a neutral outlook.

The big story this quarter is the formation of leader packs across both autonomous vehicles and trucks. But for the first time in a long time, Waymo is showing signs of vulnerability even as they continue to scale. The road to autonomy is full of opportunity, but it is also full of change.

The Future is Bright. The Future is Autonomous. 

Until next quarter.

The next AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD update is scheduled for July 20, 2025 

ADVOCATING FOR THE AUTONOMY ECONOMY | SPONSORED

Automation and autonomy will strengthen the economy, create jobs, and reduce inflation. Council for Economic Resilience is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American public.

Get Engaged, Learn More visit CNFER.org

Council for Economic Resilience, Inc. is a 501(c)4 Advocacy Group that is dedicated to promoting the future of autonomy and automation for the benefit of the American people.

WHAT’S MOVING THE MARKETS | AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS

Kodiak Is Going Public

🗓️ April 14, 2025, marks a historic moment for the autonomous trucking industry. On this day, Kodiak announced it will go public through a business combination with Ares Acquisition Corporation II, valuing the company at $2.5 billion.

This proposed transaction validates Kodiak’s decision to focus on a modular, scalable autonomous driving hardware platform rather than aligning exclusively with a single OEM. At the heart of this strategy are Kodiak’s patented SensorPods which are versatile, swappable units that are designed for rapid deployment across multiple vehicle platforms.

SensorPods enable Kodiak’s autonomous driving technology to be adapted across Class 8 trucks, military vehicles (tanks), and light-duty trucks, reinforcing the company’s platform-agnostic approach.

On the commercial front, Kodiak hit another major milestone in March when Atlas Energy committed to purchasing 100 autonomous trucks equipped with the Kodiak Driver, following the successful completion of a performance milestone.

In the Permian Basin, Kodiak is currently operating two fully-autonomous trucks that are owned by Atlas Energy, logging over 750+ hours of paid driver-out operations.

Should “hours of paid driverless operations” become the new standard for investors evaluating autonomous driving companies? It is a metric that is quantifiable and applies to each and every company operating both an autonomous trucking and autonomous vehicle company.

Kodiak’s proposed business combination with Ares Acquisition Corporation II is expected to close in the second half of 2025, with Kodiak trading under the ticker symbol $KDK. Once public, Kodiak will join Aurora as only the second pure-play autonomous trucking company on the public markets.

Our take: Kodiak is on the road to becoming a public company.

Companies Mentioned: $AESI ( ▲ 3.44% ), $AUR ( ▲ 4.09% ) 

Kodiak is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucks category.

PIQUING OUR INTEREST

Lyft Acquires FREENOW, Expands to UK & Europe Lyft is hopping across the pond and expanding to the UK and Europe through it’s $197 million acquisition of FREENOW, a multi-mobility app company.

Bot Auto Announces Formation of Strategic Advisory Board In anticipation of launching commercial driver-out autonomous trucking operations by year-end, Bot Auto announced the formation of a strategic advisory board.

Torc Hires Steve Kenner as Chief Safety Officer Steve is one of the best in the business of safety and is an excellent hire for Torc.

Uber Opens Waymo Interest List in Atlanta As Uber prepares to launch Waymo robotaxis in Atlanta this summer, it has opened the interest list.

China Bans “Smart Driving” and “Autonomous Driving” Terms From Ads Chinese automakers are now banned from using the terms “smart driving” or “autonomous driving” in advertisements when promoting advanced driving features.

All Systems Go For Parallel Systems Parallel Systems has received approval from the Federal Railroad Administration to deploy its autonomous battery-electric railcars on a 160-mile stretch of track in Georgia.

📰 Before these stories were featured here, they were available on X. Follow @RoadToAutonomy today to stay up-to-date on the latest news and developments shaping the autonomy economy.

SOCIAL BUZZ | AUTONOMOUS TRUCKS

Aurora Releases Voluntary Safety Self-Assessment (VSSA) on Eve of Commercial Launch

On the eve of their driver-out commercial launch, Aurora has released their comprehensive 2025 Voluntary Safety Self-Assessment (VSSA).

Our take: The timing of this report’s release is strategic, signaling that Aurora is ready to launch driver-out commercial operations in the coming days.

Aurora is currently ranked #1 with a bullish outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the autonomous trucks category.

Companies Mentioned: $AUR ( ▲ 4.09% )

SOCIAL BUZZ | LICENSING

Nuro Expands Testing to Japan

Nuro is expanding its autonomous driving testing operations to Japan as it moves closer to securing a licensing deal with an OEM.

Our take: Could Nuro’s expansion to Japan be a signal that the company has either secured or is close to securing a deal with a Japanese OEM?

Nuro is currently ranked #2 with a positive outlook on the AUTONOMY LEADERBOARD in the licensing category.

THE ROAD TO AUTONOMY PODCAST

Scaling Physical AI to Unlock Global Supply Chain Efficiency

(April 15, 2025) Jim Liefer, CEO, Ambi Robotics joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how physical AI is transforming warehouse automation and redefining global supply chain efficiency.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

AUTONOMY MARKETS PODCAST

Kodiak is Going Public, Aurora’s Driver-Out Countdown Continues, and Lyft Expands to Europe

(April 18, 2025) This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Kodiak starting the process to become a publicly traded company, the anxiety leading up to Aurora’s driver-out commercial launch and Lyft’s expansion into Europe through the acquisition of FREENOW.

Watch on YouTube | Spotify | X

Companies Mentioned: $AUR ( ▲ 4.09% ), $LYFT ( ▲ 2.95% ), $UBER ( ▲ 2.98% ), $TSLA ( ▼ 0.08% ), $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.42% )